Nightmare Presidential Scenarios, Cont…
[As I compose this, the final numbers aren't in, but Obama is on his way to winning the Iowa Caucus. The Iowa caucus isn't that meaningful. However...]
Part 1. George W. Bush is elected. I consider moving, but we haven’t colonized any further planets yet.
Part 2. George W. Bush is elected again. I wail and rend my garments… consider a hunger strike but I can’t give up bacon.
Part 3. Democrats, riding a wave of idealistic fervor and campaigns to turn out new voters, push Obama into the general election where he is beaten by [insert Republican candidate here-- they are all equally terrifying to me]. In a despair the likes of which have been unseen since the time of the Ancient Greeks, our lives become a new level of purgatory.
My reasoning: the problem is that Clinton and Obama are both basically unelectable because a) few new voters come out for the general election, b) many voters stay home, c) too many “moderates” will never be able to bring themselves to support either a relatively inexperienced, shape-shifting black candidate or a hard-edged woman with the last name of Clinton… when it comes time they will either not vote (advantage: Republicans) or vote Republican.
I’ve got nothing against Obama. I think he’s under-experienced and I don’t love the way he has wholly changed his persona… but the former can be overcome and the latter is just politics. I think Hillary would be individually a better decision-maker, but the power of the presidency is not solely in the office, but in the apparatus that they create around themselves.
No, what I fear is that neither of them are finally electable, and since Democrats and Independents don’t vote strategically (John Dean? Ralph Nader?) we will get stuck for another eight years (and make no mistake, Bush has shown that even the worst incumbent can be RE-elected) with some Republican knob…
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:49 pm
[...] Ruminate added an interesting post on Nightmare Presidential Scenarios, Contâ
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:50 pm
[...] Ruminate placed an observative post today on Nightmare Presidential Scenarios, Contâ
January 4th, 2008 at 6:26 am
You think they’re unelectable because of their race or colour. “…relatively inexperienced, shape-shifting black candidate or a hard-edged woman with the last name of Clinton…”
If this is true, you may as well vote Republican because you believe there is utterly no hope for the American people. Not only is the right completely discredited – it *is* discredited, right? Torture, war, corruption, debt… – but voters are not afraid to vote for minority candidates any more.
My own take is that the people who would refuse to vote for either of them on the basis of race or gender are *already* voting Republican, so there’s no loss either way.
My take is also that the Bush results are better explained by electoral fraud than by voter intentions, especially in areas using electronic voting machines. Fortunately, almost all states have procedures in place to block that source of fraud in the coming election.
Finally, I think that comments like this suggest that it’s OK to reject a candidate based on his or her race or color, on the specious grounds of ‘unelectability’ – which is as dangerous as nominating the ‘unelectable’ candidate in the first place.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:00 am
[...] Nightmare Presidential Scenarios, Cont… 1 Stephen Downes [...]
January 4th, 2008 at 10:53 am
I should add to my followup post that I would be *ecstatic* to be proven wrong. I don’t think I’m a racist, but I am exceedingly cynical. And why shouldn’t I be? The Republicans were completely discredited the last time around and we elected Bush again!
And since the mid-terms, the Democrats have failed more than enough in their promizes to disillusion moderate hopefuls who thought change might really be around the corner.
Maybe I should vote Republican (I won’t, though Alaska’s puny delegation will go to the Republicans as usual)…
January 4th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
It always startles me how vehement some on the Left are about those on the Right. I’m sure it’s not a one-way street, but a few things here in your comments that ticked me off are:
The assumption that conservative/Right = Republican. There are a large number of independent conservatives that are ignored by the Left, the media, and often even the Republican party. I think if we were to discuss this we would agree that the two designations are not interchangeable.
The “discredited” comment. Again, I’m not splitting hairs when I say there’s a difference between those on the Right and those who happen to be in power with the Republican party banner hanging overhead. I’ll grant you that the definition of torture is one you can condemn us on for our disagreements, but I think even the most staunch hawks on the Right recognize that we are in a mess with the War; the question is, how do we right what we’ve wronged? That is our responsibility. Corruption? As prevelant on the right as on the left. It blows my mind to think that people believe Republicans would engage in voter fraud but Democrats would not. Electronic voting machines scare the hell out of me too, as does failure to prove eligible voter status through voter identification. Debt? Yeah, ideally (for conservatives) Republicans would be small-government fiscal conservatives. But the majority of those in the US congress and senate–on both sides of the aisle–are not. War is of course expensive, but when you continue to grow every single social program of course there’s going to be debt. That’s a huge problem, and that’s one of the main reasons. This is what I mean by Republicans are not necessarily conservatives; I see a bunch of scared politicians afraid to impact their re-electability. I know many on the Left would say the exact same thing about the Democrats in power, though with different evidence.
“…people who would refuse to vote for either of them on the basis of race or gender are *already* voting Republican” Please. The whole “Republicans are Racist” prejudice is getting old. While it may be you meant “some racists are Republicans” the implication is “if Republican then racist”.
All-in-all, my point is that you can’t accuse the Right en masse of being corrupt and evil; you can only accuse individuals. You can accuse the Bush administration if you want. You can accuse congressmen and senators. But blanket statements won’t do; it insults citizens whom you have never met, degrades thinking men and women who’s opinions and positions you don’t really know, who very well may feel as shafted as you by their leader’s decisions. That’s no way to allow for dialogue between real people.